가트너, 2009년 IT 분야 10대 예측

◆ IT 시장 조사기관인 가트너는 2009년 IT 분야에 대한 10대 예측을 발표(2009.2)

   - 전 세계적으로 비용 절감과 환경적 책임성이 핵심 화두가 될 2009에 IT 부문에도 이러한 트렌드가 반영될 것으로 전망

   - 즉, 가상화(Virtualization), 텔레프레전스(Telepresence), 넷북(Netbooks), 클라우드 컴퓨팅, 센서 네트워크 등이 주요하게 부상

     ※ 텔레프레전스(Telepresence) : 인터넷 네트워크 기술과 가상의 현실을 구현
        하는 디지털 디스플레이 기술로, 원격지에서도 실제 상대방과 마주하는 것과
        유사한 효과를 갖는 영상회의 시스템

     ※ 넷북(Netbooks) : 스크린 크기 7~10인치의 대당 500달러 미만의 소형 노트북

   - 반면, 사무실 전화, 비즈니스 프로세스 아웃소싱, 무선 데이터에 대한 정액요금 및 무제한 서비스 계획, 항공 여행 등은
     저조할 것으로 예측

◆ 가트너의 2009년 IT분야 10대 예측

  ① 서버 가상화 소프트웨어 시장은 2013년까지 매년 28% 성장하여, 현재의 18억 달러 규모에서 62억 달러 규모로 성장할 것임

  ② 2011년까지 컨설팅 및 시스템 통합(SI) 부분 수입의 30%는 클라우드를 통해 창출될 것임

  ③ 2012년까지 상위 20개 비즈니스 프로세스 아웃소싱 제공업체들 중 1/3 정도가 파산할 것임

  ④ 2012년까지 성공적인 기업들은 보다 빠르게 원하는 최적의 방법을 찾기 위해 더욱 다양한 비즈니스 프로세스를 시도하고
      실패를 경험할 것임

  ⑤ 2012년까지 PC 제조업체들은 판매하는 PC 중 1/5 정도만을 재활용할 것임

  ⑥ 2012년까지 전 세계 소비자에게 판매된 모바일 PC의 30%는 300달러 미만의 가격이 될 것임
      (저렴한 가격에 이동통신기능을 갖춘 넷북이 주류를 이룰 것임)

  ⑦ 2013년 말까지 기업의 지식근로자 40%는 사무실 전화기를 사용하지 않을 것임

  ⑧ 2010년 말이 되면 무선사업자들은 무제한(정액 요금) 모바일 데이터 계획을 더 이상 제공하지 않을 것임

  ⑨ 2012년 말까지 온라인 비디오 및 센서 네트워크 콘텐츠가 대부분의 네트워크 트래픽을 차지할 것임

  ⑩ 2012년 말까지 비디오 텔레프레전스는 매년 여행 및 숙박산업의 연간비용 35억 달러에 해당하는 210만 개의 항공좌석을 
       대체할 것임

-------------------------------------- 원문 ------------------------------------------
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/95790,gartner-predicts-the-top-ten-technologies-for-2009.aspx

Virtualisation, telepresence, netbooks and sensor networks are the hot technologies this year, according to Gartner’s annual Top 10 technology predictions released yesterday.

In a year in which cost cutting and environmental responsibilities are top priorities, it was of little surprise that growth in the server virtualisation market was the analyst's No. 1 prediction.

Gartner predicted the virtualisation will grow at an average of 28 percent a year through to 2013 - from $US1.8 billion ($A2.76 billion) today to $US6.2 billion.

The analyst also had high hopes for desktop virtualisation - confident that with the right technical updates, vendors will overcome some "recognised technology limitations".
Hosted virtual desktops will soon be "good enough" for enterprise deployment, Gartner said.

Speaking at Sydney's Hilton Hotel, Gartner vice president Stephen Prentice also predicted strong growth for video telepresence, again because it lowered costs and was environmentally friendly.
He said buyers will seek lower prices and interoperable systems from such systems.

On the services side, Gartner predicted that some one in three of today's largest business process outsourcing providers will have gone belly up by 2012 due to their exposure to loss-making contracts.

Gartner warned CIOs to study their outsourced partners carefully - especially those with exposure to the financial services sector, those that can't boast any major new wins through 2010 and those with unprofitable portfolios or lack of capital.

On networks, Gartner predicted that online video and sensor network content will hog most network traffic by 2012.
And it predicted that wireless network providers will no longer offer flat-rate or unlimited plans by the end of next year.

Users of data-hungry devices such as the iPhone are already testing the capacity of these networks, Prentice said, leading to bandwidth issues and customer churn.
These limitations will drive demand for 4G technologies such as Long-Term Evolution Advanced and WiMAX, he said.

Gartner said that a third of mobile computers sold by 2012 will be sub-$US300 Netbooks - priced for developing countries and with features suited for telecommunications carriers to become a major distribution channel.

Gartner's No. 2 prediction was for a third of consulting and integration revenue to be delivered through the "cloud" - in stark contrast to a presentation made later in the day by Gartner analyst Andy Rowsell-Jones who predicted that software as a service "is not going to happen" this year for enterprise customers.

WHAT'S HOT

 - Virtualisation (server and desktop)
 - Telepresence
 - Cloud Computing
 - Sensor Networks
 - Online video

WHAT'S NOT

 - Deskphones
 - Business Process Outsourcing
 - Flat rate wireless data plans
 - Airline travel


Gartner's Top 10 predictions for this year

1. The server virtualisation software market will grow with a CAGR of 28 percent through 2013, rising from $US1.8 billion to $US6.2 billion.
2. By 2011, 30 per cent of consulting and systems integration revenue will be delivered via the cloud
3. By 2012, as many as a third of the top 20 business process outsourcing providers will fold.
4. By 2012, successful enterprises will encourage and reward more business process failures in order to find the optimal approach they want more quickly
5. In 2012, the major PC vendors will recycle only one PC for every five they ship
6. By 2012, 30 percent of mobile PCs sold in the worldwide consumer market will be priced at less than US$300
7. By the end of 2013, 40 percent of enterprise knowledge workers will have abandoned or removed their Deskphone
8. By the end of 2010, wireless operators will cease to offer unlimited (flat-rate) mobile data plans
9. By the end of 2012, physical sensors will create 20 percent of non-video Internet traffic
10. By the end of 2012, video telepresence will replace 2.1 million airline seats a year at an annual cost to the travel and hospitality industry of $US3.5 billion.